Ten Big Emerging Markets, the Big Ten
Of all the world trade growth in the next two decades, almost three-quarters is expected to come from developing countries. A small core of those nations is likely to account for more than half of that growth.
In fact, 10 countries are expected to account for over 40 per cent of total global imports over the next 20 years, surpassing even Japan and Europe.
These
big emerging markets (
BEMs) are: the Chinese Economic Area (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan), Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, India, the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN), South Korea, Poland, Turkey, and South Africa. China, with a population of 1.2 billion, is the biggest of these commercial targets.
(adapted from Business America,
The Big Emerging Markets - BEMs - developing countries representing major export growth opportunities, 1994; and McCoy, F.,
Tapping into emerging markets, Black Enterprise, 1996, visited 2009-05-04)
"The
big emerging markets are the key swing factor in the future growth of world trade, global financial stability, and the transition to free market economies in Asia, Central Europe, and Latin America. They are also crucial to nuclear nonproliferation, the improvement of human rights, environmental cooperation, and the avoidance of war in several critical hotspots."
(Garten, J.,
"The Big Ten The Big Emerging Markets and How They Will Change Our Lives
",
The New York Times, 1997, visited 2009-05-04)
Defining Characteristics
These
BEMs, which are all physically large, also share a number of other important attributes:
- They have significant populations and represent considerable markets for a wide range of products.
- Most have strong growth rates or clearly hold the promise of future economic expansion.
- Most are of major political importance within their regions.
- They are regional economic drivers-their growth will engender further expansion in neighbouring markets.
"As a group, the 10
BEMs are importing about as much merchandise from the United States as Japan and the European Union (EU) combined. In fact, during the period 1990-¬2010, the
BEMs could account for at least $1 trillion in incremental U.S. export growth. The Department of Commerce (DOC) expects the
BEMs will double their share of world imports as well, increasing to 38% by 2010 from 19% in 1994. No other market category shows such dramatic growth potential."
(Kader, V., P. Barry, and M. Cooper
"Big Emerging Markets Fuel U.S. Export Opportunities," 1996, visited 2009-05-27)
Market Access
"Because these are
emerging markets, they are constantly changing and occasionally unstable relations with them are volatile. In addition, the enormous promise of these markets makes them a magnet for the world's most competitive companies from the U.S. and abroad. Many have important state sectors, and virtually all are focusing heavily on infrastructure projects that demand the involvement of local governments. There are frequently barriers to entering these markets, including high tariffs, quotas and protectionist regulatory
barriers. Commercial systems, including full respect for intellectual property rights, smoothly functioning capital markets and open government-procurement procedures, are often still developing or lacking altogether."
(Srinivasan, T.N.,
"Analytical and Regulatory Issues in the Competition for Private Investment Between and Within Developing Countries," visited 2009-04-05)